The Singularity Already Happened — Just Not Where You Think: Analysis of 5 AI Metrics
Analysis of 5 AI progress metrics: only academic papers show hyperbolic growth. Everything else is linear. Singularity = attention, not capabilities.
The singularity already happened. Just not where you think.
What is the AI Singularity?
Singularity — the moment when the pace of new AI developments exceeds humanity's ability to process them.
5 AI Metrics Tested for Hyperbolic Growth
A researcher took 5 AI progress metrics and tried to fit a hyperbola (since it goes to ♾️ at a finite X):
- AI model quality (MMLU score)
- Cost of tokens/$
- Time between frontier model releases
- Academic papers on emergent AI
- Share of AI code (adoption)
Result: Only Academic Papers Show Hyperbolic Growth
Only 1 metric showed true hyperbolic growth — the number of academic papers on emergent capabilities of AI.
Its flight to infinity is expected on Tuesday, July 18, 2034 at 6 AM Moscow time.
What Does "Emergent" Mean in AI?
Emergent — when a model suddenly develops skills it wasn't specifically trained for. For example, solving math despite being trained only on text.
The Other 4 Metrics Are Linear
The other 4 fit a regular line. No sharp takeoff to +inf.
Conclusion: It's Attention, Not Capabilities
It's human attention to AI that's growing hyperbolically, not the capabilities of models.
The singularity narrative is needed to justify current company valuations in stagnating markets. Declining profit growth demands increasingly aggressive growth projections.
Original post in Telegram: @danokhlopkov
Dan Okhlopkov — AI agent practitioner. Building tools for TON Blockchain analysis and Telegram automation.